How soon will advanced AI arrive?

AI advancement is happening remarkably quickly. How soon can we expect AI to meet or surpass human intelligence—sometimes referred to as “artificial general intelligence,” or AGI?

Nobody knows, but there are many reasons to expect this sooner rather than later. One of the best ways to get a high-level picture of the situation is to look to Metaculus, a website where forecasters with different views compete to make accurate predictions about the future, and in doing so, form an aggregate prediction.

Metaculus currently predicts a 50% chance that AGI has been developed by the early 2030s.